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News - Market Insight - Market Insight 2025Market Insight: Tasman targets D-MaxStorm tides coming for ute market but strong BEV sales set to help Kia push Tasman5 Aug 2025 By TOM BAKER KIA is confident that it will be able to navigate the storm approaching Australia’s one-tonne ute segment, with the South Korean brand expressing high confidence that its clean-sheet Tasman will displace rivals to take fourth place in Australia’s ute sales race in 2025.
“In 12 months’ time, we’ll be announcing that we’ve sold 20,000,” Kia Australia chief executive officer Damien Meredith claimed at the elaborate national launch of the Tasman.
Kia Australia product planning manager Christopher Lee reiterated his colleague’s confidence. “Our goal is clear. We are targeting 20,000 units annually, aiming to become one of the top four players in the light commercial ute segment,” he asserted.
“It is an ambitious target, yes, but absolutely within reach.”
Parent company Kia Corporation will build 60,000 units of the Tasman annually at its Hwaseong plant, of which Kia Australia has committed to a one-third share, with another third earmarked for the Korean domestic market and the final 20,000 sales to be found in the Middle East, South Africa, and South America.
While Mr Meredith said the 20,000 result is “the number (Kia Australia) has to get”, behind the scenes it is regarded as conservative with Mr Meredith’s team planning for a push to a 25,000 result sometime between 2027-2029.
The ongoing goal of 20,000 annual Tasman sales will be bolstered by a progression of major updates occurring about every three years, with the series of product enhancements simultaneously delivering styling and powertrain updates. That will include a degree of electrification, in time.
Based on segment results to June 2025, an annual Tasman result of 20,000 sales would see it land in fifth place, behind the Ford Ranger (53,342 annualised run rate), Toyota HiLux (44,490 ARR), Isuzu D-Max (21,912 ARR) and BYD Shark 6 (20,848 ARR), but ahead of the Mitsubishi Triton (16,414 ARR).
This data does not reveal nuances such as the recent arrival of close competition for the groundbreaking Shark 6 plug-in hybrid (PHEV) from the GWM Cannon Alpha PHEV, or the scale of the waves heading for the ute segment brought on by the New Vehicle Emissions Standard (NVES).
NVES limits for utes ratchet from 210g/km in 2025 to 110g/km in 2029, being less than half a development cycle for utes from ‘legacy’ manufacturers.
These limits – already more lenient than those for cars and SUVs – are a problem given typical diesel dual-cabs hover around the 200g/km CO2 mark.
Because NVES penalties are based on car-maker fleet average CO2 emissions, levying fines of $100 per gram over the annual limit, per car sold, NVES costs will quickly send OEMs without low-CO2 cars heavily into the red. Limits get so tough, so quickly, that drastic price increases cannot cover them for long.
Usurping the Isuzu D-Max is a key goal for the Kia Tasman. While the ute class is generally exposed to NVES, the D-Max is in dire straits if Isuzu cannot raise prices fast enough to cover penalties – or bring low-CO2 alternatives to Australia and sell them in sufficient quantities.
In Tasman-land, Kia’s product planning sharks are circling. Blood was detectable in the water after Isuzu issued a March 2024 media statement warning that “vehicle brands that cannot increase vehicle pricing to cover (NVES) penalties may be left with no option but to exit the Australian market”.
“It would be sad to see D-Max leave our market,” Mr Rivero told GoAuto. “Last year alone they did 30,000. If they do vacate, well, when Holden and Honda shrunk, (Kia) benefited from some of that. I’m hoping if that was to happen, the Tasman could (benefit).”
The Ford Ranger, which was bequeathed a wider, longer platform and available V6 petrol and diesel engines in 2022 – just as final development work was concluding on Tasman – has assumed a dominant position and has forced the previously frontrunning HiLux into a distant second place.
Meanwhile, Toyota is struggling to achieve mainstream success with a BEV model in Australia (which officially have zero CO2 for NVES purposes), but its popular line of hybrid cars and SUVs will partially offset the diesel HiLux.
Kia’s reasonable success in selling BEVs locally will insulate the Tasman’s sole powertrain (a non-hybrid diesel four-cylinder generating 195-214g/km CO2) from NVES pressure while KC progresses development of a hybrid Tasman with lower emissions.
“We are blessed that we have some EV products like EV5, EV3 and soon EV4 that are going to help us build some (NVES) credits to allow Tasman to continue to do its thing,” said Kia Australia general manager of product planning Roland Rivero.
Simultaneously, the ute segment is being fractured locally Chinese entrants which have brought PHEV alternatives to the fore with shorter development windows than their Western counterparts – led by the affordable BYD Shark 6, which is rated for just 46g/km CO2 due to its claimed 100km electric range.
Ford has followed BYD in releasing a PHEV version of the Ranger with more modest specs – and much higher list prices. Commercially, Ford will need to redirect significant volume to the Ranger PHEV (claimed emissions of 66g/km) to avoid eight-figure NVES fines in short order.
Global product planners at the Blue Oval are closely examining the viability of installing PHEV power into the ultra-high CO2 Ranger Raptor, with the halo grade having become a pain point for Ford because it makes up at least 15 per cent of sales.
Mitsubishi will seek to lean further on its Outlander PHEV to generate NVES credits in future to help offset the diesel Triton (which is marginally more economical than rivals), while it will add its first BEV model – a small hatchback – in 2026 to assist further.  Read more |
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