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News - Market Insight - Market Insight 2025Market Insight: A record year in the making?Third-quarter sales a usual indicator of full-year performance – but what about 2025?13 Oct 2025 By MATT BROGAN OVER the past decade, years that have finished with high or record sales tallies in September have enjoyed strong performance come December, which tells us something about where 2025 new car sales are headed.
Figures published by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) last week show a total of 914,439 new vehicles have been delivered in Australia to 30 September – the second-best result in a decade and one that proves the resilience of the market in uncertain economic times.
Australians purchased 101,992 new vehicles in September, considerably more than for the same month in 2024 (97,020). While that number is cause for celebration, a study of the broader market suggests the December figure will fall short of last year’s record, even if only just.
On average, and based on the past decade’s median, September sales run to 75.8 per cent of the year’s total.
Extrapolating that formula to the year-to-date volume achieved so far in 2025, it is expected that total sales for the calendar year will run to 1,218,947 units – just 1660 fewer than during 2024.
According to Toyota Australia vice president of sales, marketing, and franchise operations Sean Hanley, the volume of new-vehicle sales across the first nine months of 2025 has exceeded expectations.
“Earlier in 2025 we had expected the industry to return to a total of about 1.17 to 1.185 million units, compared with 1.22 million last year,” Mr Hanley told GoAuto.
“However, the industry has shown even more strength, and we are now forecasting a similar result to last year.
“Of course, the arrival of several new brands has stimulated demand, providing consumers with even greater choice.”
Mr Hanley said the greater diversification of brands in the Australian market – capped with limited production capacity across some Toyota models – was also likely to impact the number of Toyota vehicles sold across the calendar year.
“While we (Toyota) are unlikely to beat the record we set in 2024, we will again deliver well in excess of 220,000 vehicles,” he added.
“We continue to see very strong demand for Toyota vehicles, particularly hybrids, however our result will be somewhat limited by production capacity.”
While the influx of new brands into the Australian market has thinned the share of volume held by some stalwart marques, it remains clear that certain favourites are in with a chance – at least at the end of this calendar year.
Leading the charge as of 30 September is Toyota with an 18.9 per cent share of the market (up 0.1 per cent year on year), leading Ford with 7.8 per cent (down 0.2 per cent), Mazda with 7.7 per cent (also down 0.2 per cent), Kia with 6.9 per cent (up 0.2 per cent), and Hyundai with 6.4 per cent (up 0.6 per cent).
Just how far the pendulum will continue swing toward newer marques is difficult to predict.
Mr Hanley said he believes the arrival of new brands, and new legislation, will see the Australian new car landscape change, but that trust in stalwart marques is something that will not dissipate any time soon.
“We’ve always said that the Australian vehicle market is highly competitive and nothing’s changed,” he continued.
“There will always be new brands, with bold aspirations for sales growth and market share. We remain confident in our Toyota product and sales strategies and believe we will continue to do well into the future.
“During the past five years our market share has remained steady and last year we set an industry record of 241,296 sales, beating the previous mark we set in 2008.
“We never take our position for granted and believe Toyota’s greatest strength is our unrivalled dealer network with the ability to service the many Toyotas we sell across the length and breadth of Australia, as well as our comprehensive line-up of models and parts distribution capability.
“The industry will face many changes over the next few years with the introduction of NVES and the federal government’s 2035 emissions targets. Toyota’s multi-pathway approach will mean we have a broad product range to suit the needs of Australians.”
Despite more new energy vehicles than ever now available in the market, it is diesel-powered utilities that continue to top the sales charts.
Australia’s top new vehicle models at the end of Q3 continue much the same as at this time in 2024, with the Ford Ranger (42,025 unit sales YTD), Toyota HiLux (40,813), Toyota RAV4 (35,118), Toyota LandCruiser Prado (21,840), Isuzu D-Max (20,719), and Ford Everest (19,480) all performing exceptionally well.
Evidently, Toyota models continue to rank highly in terms of consumer preference, with three of the top five best-selling vehicles wearing a Toyota badge.
“After more than 60 years of doing business in this country, there are now millions of Toyota vehicles on Australian roads. This is a testament to the trust that customers continue to place in us. Brand trust is not built overnight in a mature market like Australia,” said Mr Hanley.
“We have more than 260 dealers, with many in regional and rural areas, meaning customers can be confident that wherever they are, we are there to support them through the entire ownership experience.
“We consider this to be Toyota’s advantage and our clear point of difference in the Australian market,” he concluded.
Q3 and Q4 new car sales (2016-25)*:
*All sales data supplied courtesy of VFACTS.
^Sales forecast based on 10-year statistical sales data.  Read more6th of October 2025  Market Insight: Volvo upbeat amid sales slideVolvo Car Australia optimistic that wave of new BEVs will reverse recent sales slump22nd of September 2025  Market Insight: Small SUV segment sales soarAustralia’s third-largest segment by sales, small SUVs is poised to keep on growing15th of September 2025  Market Insight: Full-size 4WD sales in strifeSlowing sales of stalwart 4WDs show Aussie buyers are shopping other segments, utes |
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